Saturday, 8 November 2014

The Bachelor by the Numbers: Your Stats for Relationships and Marriages on this Kooky Show

The Bachelor tries to sell you a product. Inside the pretty box: True love! Proposal! Huge ring! Marriage! Kids! And being in love foreeeevvvver! But how many Bachelor relationships actually survive? Here are your stats (courtesy of Wikipedia)! I'm not counting The Bachelorette or franchises outside the U.S. for these stats. We'll save that one for another day. Here's the math:

First of All, the Bachelor Probably Won't Pick You

Usually, there are around 25 contestants. Out of these, only one can be chosen (unless we get a season of sister wives, but that hasn't happened yet). Therefore, a female contestant's chances of getting The Final Rose is approximately 1/25, which translates to a 4% chance. Minuscule, right?

This kitten thinks that these contestants deserve better

This is a pretty lousy chance at falling in love. In the real world, that's like having to date 25 different men before finding a committed boyfriend. That's a different guy every 2 weeks for a year. Exhausting!

Here's your present: a 4% chance of a boyfriend (and a 96% chance of crying in a limo)

Proposals and Marriages

Almost all Bachelors give out a Final Rose (17/18, or 94%). Only Brad Womack had a season where he rejected all. He was given another chance but of course that flopped too. If a contestant gets a Final Rose, what happens next? There's a 59% chance that the Bachelor will propose (10 out of 17 Bachelors proposed; the other 7 "took a chance at a relationship").

There's only an 11% chance that the Bachelor will get married (2 out of 18 Bachelors got hitched). Jason Mesnick proposed to Melissa, but later chose to be with runner-up Molly. It's debatable if this one counts, but I'm feeling generous (without Jason/Molly the marriage rate is 6%!) Jason and Molly have been together for almost 6 years and have two kids. Sean and Catherine are married and have been together for almost 2 years. A total of 89% of Bachelor couples never get married!  Chris Harrison, stop looking so smug at The Final Rose show - you know a wedding is unlikely.

Eight out of 10 Bachelors who proposed never got married. Did the women have to return the Neil Lane ring? I bet they did.

Going back to the store

How Long Do Bachelor Relationships Last?

The answer: Not long. Like, really, really NOT LONG. I've seen inch-worms that were longer than these relationships. Most commonly, if a match is made, the couples break up within a year (76%!!!). There is a small chance that they'll date for a few years before breaking up (11%).

Here's your break-down. Out of 18 seasons:

6% (1 contestant) didn't manage to make a match (Brad)

17% (3 couples) broke up after a few weeks (Bon/Estella; Jesse/Jessica; Travis/Sarah)

44% (8 couples) broke up after a few months (Alex/Amanda; Aaron/Helene; Andrew/Jen; Lorenzo/Jennifer; Andrew/Tessa; Matt/Shayne; Jake/Vienna; Brad/Emily)

11% (2 couples) broke up within a year (Ben/Courtney; Juan Pablo/Nikki)

11% (2 couples) broke up within 5 years (Bryan/Mary; Charlie/Sarah)

11% (2 couples) are married (Jason/Molly; Sean/Catherine) - No divorces yet!
76% of Bachelor couples don't even date for a year!

A Warning to All Prospective Contestants: Let's say you make it through the producer interviews, and yay, you're on the show! You have a LESS THAN 1% CHANCE of actually getting married to the Bachelor. (This is the math: out of the 4% who get a final rose, only 11% get married, so your total chance at marriage = 0.44%). Doesn't sound like such a good idea to quit your job for a chance at love! 

This monkey thinks that <1% is not a good chance at finding love (he found his wife by getting set up by a friend)

Despite the stats, I still think this show is so much fun to watch! See you next week for another recap of Bachelor Canada.

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